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Ever wonder how someone in America can be arrested if they really are
presumed innocent, why a defendant is found not guilty instead of
innocent, or why Americans put up with a justice system which sometimes
allows criminals to go free on technicalities? These questions can be understood by understanding the similarity of the
American justice system to hypothesis testing in statistics and the two types of errors it can
produce. (This discussion assumes that the reader has at least been
introduced to the normal distribution and its use in hypothesis testing.
Also please note that the American justice system is used for convenience.
Others are similar in nature such as the British system which inspired the
American system)
True, the trial process does not use numerical values as
does hypothesis
testing in statistics, but both the justice system and statistical
versions of hypothesis testing share at least three common elements
(other than a lot of jargon that sounds like double talk):
- The alternative hypothesis - This is the reason
a criminal is arrested. Obviously the police don't think the arrested
person is innocent or they wouldn't arrest him. In statistics the
alternative hypothesis is the hypothesis the researchers wish to
evaluate.
- The null hypothesis - In the criminal justice
system this is the presumption of innocence. In both the judicial
system and statistics the null hypothesis indicates that the suspect
or treatment didn't do anything. The null is the logical opposite of
the the
alternative. For example "not white" is the logical opposite
of white. Colors such as red, blue and green as well as black all
qualify as "not white".
- A standard of judgment - In the justice system
and statistics there is no possibility of absolute proof and so a
standard has to be set for rejecting the null hypothesis. In the
justice system the standard is "a reasonable doubt". The
null hypothesis has to be rejected beyond a reasonable doubt. In
statistics the standard is the maximum acceptable probability that the effect is due to
random variability in the data rather than the cause being
investigated. This standard is often set at 5% which is called the
alpha level.
It only takes one good piece of evidence to send a
hypothesis down in flames but an endless amount to prove it.
If the null is rejected then logically the alternative hypothesis
is accepted.
This is why both the justice system and statistics concentrate on
disproving or rejecting the null hypothesis rather than proving the
alternative. It's much easier to do. If a jury rejects the presumption of innocence, the defendant
is pronounced guilty.
Unfortunately, neither the legal system or statistical
testing are perfect. A jury sometimes makes an error and an innocent person goes to jail. Statisticians,
being highly imaginative, call this a type I error. Civilians call it a travesty.
In the justice system, failure to reject the presumption of
innocence gives the defendant a not guilty verdict. This means only that
the standard for rejecting innocence was not met. It does not mean the person
really is innocent. It would take an endless amount of evidence to
actually prove the null hypothesis of innocence.
Sometimes, guilty people are set free. Statisticians have given this error the highly imaginative name, type II error.
Americans find type II errors disturbing but not as horrifying
as type I errors. A type I error means that not only
has an
innocent person been sent to jail but the truly guilty person has also gone free.
In a sense, a type I error is twice as bad as a type II error. Needless to
say, the American justice system puts a lot of emphasis on avoiding type I
errors. This emphasis on avoiding type I errors, however, is not
true in all cases where hypothesis testing is done.
| Justice
System - Trial |
|
Defendant
Innocent |
Defendant
Guilty |
|
Reject Presumption
of Innocence (Guilty Verdict) |
Type
I Error |
Correct |
|
Fail to Reject
Presumption of Innocence (Not Guilty Verdict) |
Correct |
Type II
Error |
|
|
|
Statistics - Hypothesis Test |
|
Null
Hypoth True |
Null
Hypoth False |
|
Reject Null
Hypothesis |
Type
I Error |
Correct |
|
Fail to Reject Null
Hypothesis |
Correct |
Type II
Error |
|
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