Mr. Rogers - AP Statistics Objectives

Syllabus 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter 1 Distributions 2 N-Distribution 3 Regression 4 NL Regression 5 Data

Unit Plan Practice Test

Chapter 5 : Producing Data AP Statistics Standards II. Sampling and Experimentation: Planning and conducting a study (10% –15%) A. Overview of methods of data collection Census Sample survey Experiment Observational study B. Planning and conducting surveys Characteristics of a well-designed and well-conducted survey Populations, samples, and random selection Sources of bias in sampling and surveys Sampling methods, including simple random sampling, stratified random sampling, and cluster sampling C. Planning and conducting experiments Characteristics of a well-designed and well-conducted experiment Treatments, control groups, experimental units, random assignments, and replication Sources of bias and confounding, including placebo effect and blinding Completely randomized design Randomized block design, including matched pairs design D. Generalizability of results from observational studies, experimental studies, and surveys
Objectives Essential Question: Can bad data be corrected with good statistical analysis? Designing Samples Distinguish between population and samples and tell which one forms the basis of statistics. Define bias (p273). Define voluntary response and convenience sampling. Explain why they invariably produces biased results. Identify when confounding is present. Explain why confounding and bias make statistical inference impossible. (Inference implies that there is no other reasonable explanation for the data.) State the key difference between a statistical study and a non-statistical study. Proper sampling technique State the two basic forms of statistical studies. Observational / Survey Experiment Describe an SRS and state what it seeks to eliminate. (With a sample size of n, every set of n individuals has an equal chance of being chosen from the population.) State how an SRS is formed. Label Table Use a table of random digits to create an SRS. Seed a random number generator (such as a table) only once. State the problem which the magic word "randomization" solves. State the primary weakness of an SRS. Variability from study to study. Occasionally a random sample will select a single type of subject instead of a representative sample. For example, a random sample of the United States could end up being 100 % motor cycle gang members or 100% kindergarten teachers. Obviously they will answer questions differently. Homefun : prob. 5.1, 5.3, 5.5,5.7 Relevance: Proper sampling is the foundation statistics rests on.	Activities   Lesson 1 Key Concept: Designing systematic, statistically sound ways to collect data Purpose: Interactive Discussion: Objectives Seat Work: generate random numbers using a random number table.
Essential Question: What is the difference between preventing variability and preventing bias in a statistical study? Describe the key method for preventing variability in observational studies and surveys. Stratification Describe how a multistage sample design is used for preventing variability. Describe 4 ways to do a perfectly good job of sampling and still get worthless results (p. 281). Under coverage - Leaving groups out of the sample selection process. Homeless people are particularly difficult to reach since they typically have neither phone numbers or addresses. Non response - Mr. Rogers Syndrome (he doesn't do surveys) Response Bias - a) Intimidating interviewer b) Intimidating question Wording Effects - Asking the wrong question or biasing the result. Homefun: 5.11, 5.13, 5.15, 5.17   Relevance: Our democratic political system depends on properly conducted sampling. It is the way politicians can judge how people would vote on an issue if given the chance. A politician can then choose to follow the will of the majority or attempt to educate the majority to a more correct point of view.	Lesson 2 Key Concept: Variability and bias--surveys Purpose: How to prevent the above in surveys Interactive Discussion: Objectives Group  Work: Correctly design a survey for Southside high
Essential Question: Which is more reliable a census or a sample? State the key advantage of a census over a sample. no sampling errors. Otherwise they both suffer from the same kind of problems. Explain the key disadvantages of a census vs. a survey. slow--conditions can change before the census is complete, for example during elections expensive State the problems common to both samples and surveys along with potential solutions. Under coverage use a variety of techniques to reach the sample group. Non response: resurvey non-responders often with a different contact method such as a phone call or personal interview. Response Bias: carefully select and train interviewers. Wording Effects: use focus groups or preliminary surveys to screen questions. Ask the same question in more than one way and test to see if the answers differ.. Relevance: Taking a census every 10 years is mandated by the U.S. Constitution. It is an important factor in our political system because it determines things such as the number of congressional representstives. It also determines many types of funding.
Essential Question: Why are experiments considered more convincing  than observational studies? Experiments Correctly use the following terms: Experimental unit/subject Treatment Factor/level Placebo effect Control group Completely randomized design State the magic word which is used in all experiments and state why and how it is used. Hint: remember the "R". Explain the conditions which make an effect statistically significant (p. 296). Be as one with the three basic principles of experimental design. Control - effects of lurking variables Randomization - prevents sampling bias. The subjects in treatment groups are chosen at random. The treatment a particular group gets is chosen by a random process. Replication - collect numerous data points Describe how double blind testing is used. Discuss the ethical considerations of double blind testing. Correctly use blocking in an experimental design. identify key lurking variable(s) set up the blocks as homogeneous as possible with respect to key lurking variables randomize the treatments: select different treatment groups randomly from within the block. Explain why blocking reduces study to study variability. it helps insure that lurking variables affect all treatment groups equally. Hence the effects cancel out. State the problem that blocking does not solve. Set up matched pairs designs.   Homefun: 5.25, 5.41, 5.47, 5.55 Relevance: Double blind testing is the required standard for drug approval in the U.S. Any benefits claimed for a drug, supplement or remedy that has not been double blind tested have to be viewed with great skepticism. Example: facilitated communication with autistic people.	Lesson 3 Key Concept: Variability and bias--experiments Purpose: How to prevent the above in experiments. Interactive Discussion: Objectives Group  Work: Correctly design an experiment for the AP test fish tank example.